Kansas City, Missouri — 3-Day Severe Weather Forecast
Today — Saturday, June 13: Enhanced Risk
Primary hazards: damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, heavy rain
Storms are expected to develop this evening across the Kansas City area as warm, moist air surges northward ahead of a frontal boundary. These storms could turn strong, bringing the main threats of damaging winds, large hail, and a lower chance of tornadoes. The SPC sees a 5% tornado probability, 30% damaging wind probability, and 15% large hail probability within 25 miles of most points. Heavy rainfall is also possible, potentially leading to localized flooding. The risk will peak during the evening into overnight hours. SPC Outlook: The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk for this area. Our model data supports this assessment with a very unstable and moist atmosphere favoring strong storms.
Tomorrow — Sunday, June 14: No Severe Threat
Tomorrow (Sunday) in Kansas City looks mainly quiet with partly cloudy skies, warm temperatures in the 80s, and humid conditions from a dewpoint around 66°F. Light winds are expected with no notable gusts. No severe weather or thunderstorms are anticipated. The threat level has decreased from enhanced to none, as the latest model data shows virtually no wind shear to support storm organization, consistent with no SPC outlook issued. Stay aware of typical summer heat and humidity.
Day 3 — Monday, June 15: No Severe Threat
Monday will be a quiet day around Kansas City with mostly fair skies and comfortable temperatures. Expect light winds and stable conditions throughout the day. No thunderstorms or severe weather are in the forecast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s will keep it feeling pleasant outdoors. Early next week remains calm before storm chances return later.
Extended Outlook (Days 4–7)
Day 4 — Tuesday, June 16: No Severe Threat
High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s with overnight lows dipping into the low 60s. A pattern may be developing that could support isolated thunderstorms, but predictability remains quite low this far into the extended range. Conditions might become marginally conducive to gusty winds, though there is no defined severe weather threat and uncertainty is high. Trends should be monitored for any subtle changes.
Day 5 — Wednesday, June 17: No Severe Threat
High temperatures around 84°F are expected with overnight lows near 68°F amid building humidity. A pattern may be developing that could support thunderstorm activity, but predictability remains very low this far into the extended range. Conditions could become somewhat conducive to stronger storms, though overall risk is minimal and should be monitored as details emerge.
Day 6 — Thursday, June 18: No Severe Threat
High temperatures around 84 degrees with lows near 64 degrees are expected amid building humidity. Conditions could become conducive to thunderstorms on Thursday, but predictability remains very low in this extended range. A general risk for severe weather should be monitored as patterns may evolve with incoming data.
Day 7 — Friday, June 19: No Severe Threat
High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 70s with lows near 60 degrees under a cooler airmass. Dewpoints around the mid 60s suggest moderate humidity, but overall atmospheric conditions could remain stable. Any potential for thunderstorms carries high uncertainty this far ahead, with patterns that may not become conducive to severe weather. The general risk should be monitored as details evolve.